Good Morning Everyone,

The club who won the contest to predict Apple's first quarter earnings has given me permission to share how they developed their contest entry. Many people have asked me how to make up a spreadsheet like the one we used for this contest. I am going to make that the educational topic for the February Club Meeting Meeting. It's not very hard.

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Good Morning Laurie,

Many Thanks and it was Fun!

You/bivio did a great job in preparing the Excel worksheet to use in
predicting the quarter EPS. Did you manually input the Apple data
provided or was it downloaded? I have already downloaded the worksheet
and doing some tinkering with it. I like the approach that you are
developing.Thanks.

PLUSH, was started in 1998 and we have been using the basic BI
approach for investing and all partners use the Toolkit6 software.
During the past couple of years, we have been moving away from the"Buy
& Hold" approach and trying to better understand the Companies that we
own or are considering on more short term basis, more of a
Quarter/Annual analysis rather than a five year guess. Using this
approach our Club is doing great, last year we had a 20.6% ARR on our
portfolio.

To make my estimate of Apple's EPS, I used data from Yahoo! Finance,
the Analyst Estimates & Income Statement along with the Toolkit6
Revenue Based Estimate model and the Quarterly Trend Analysis Report.
When I did finish doing the math, it did appear to be rather
aggressive, but I did fine tune it by what I saw. Sort of trying to do
the Peter Lynch approach, what do you see happening on the street?
Apple Stores seem to be always busy and people stand in line to "Buy"
their products at a premium price. Finally, it was just a best guess,
as you know it is very hard to predict the future.

Thanks again, Ken

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Laurie Frederiksen
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