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Having a Discussion

One of the most powerful yet difficult aspects of picking stocks as a group is being able to have a discussion and then make a decision when people may disagree.    If handled the right way,  this dissension can actually lead to better decision making because it encourages people to think about and address many different aspects of a topic.   If not handled well,  people tend to give up trying to participate.

It is important to encourage a variety of input by the members of your group and nurture an environment where different ideas are embraced and people feel comfortable speaking up and participating.   In a learning environment like a club,  it is also important to try and create an environment where everyone makes an attempt at participating.  As we all know,  you don’t really learn anything until you do the homework and try applying the knowledge yourself.

One technique I’ve been experimenting with is to offer the ability for anonymous input.  I find more people participate when they are offered this option and it brings out more variety of ideas to think about to use to make a final decision.  The discussion of the data received  focuses a little bit better on the variation in the judgments rather than the personalities or strengths and weaknesses of the group members. 

I also find I learn a lot by comparing my thoughts to others.  Since I submit them without knowing what others are going to say,   I find I put in a little more effort to try and really think through making my own decisions.

The ManifestInvesting Challenge Club is having an online “between meetings” discussion about whether or not to invest in Abbott Labs.    As part of our decision making process,  we’re asking for input on the three judgments that are made when determining a PAR or Projected Annual Return for a company.  They are, (a) its projected sales growth rate over the next 5 years, (b) it’s projected margins and (c)the projected Average P/E.  

Abbott Labs appears to be an interesting company to look at right now.  If you’d like to join in the discussion,  we’d love to have your input on the three judgment items.    You can find a place to enter your thoughts here:

Abbott Labs Group Think

Of course,  if you’d like to hear the results or join in the discussion,  make sure you let us know to add you to the Challenge Club email list or make plans to attend the May online meeting.  You can register by going to www.bivio.com/club_cafe

   Laurie Frederiksen

   www.bivio.com

 

Hey Laurie,
Your message is a good one, but it covers several different points:
1. the topic of participation regarding stock discussion
2. an invitation to join the Manifest group think
3. an invitation to attend a Manifest Challenge Club meeting
I'd like to address #1. I wholeheartedly agree that participation is the key to better communication, better learning and better stock decisions. I don't necessarily agree that anonimity is the best course of action. I think that Mark's group think was set up that way so that many people could participate in the process.
In a club environment, I've tried it both ways and I find that people do not put in as much thought or effort into their due diligence if they are not responsible for their judgments.
Anyone can say, "Yeah, I chose 15% for EPS going forward." But without the reasoning behind that decision, it's meaningless to the group. When members of my club are asked to bring SSGs to a group think, we all want to know their judgments and how they arrived at them. This lets us know if that member is actually putting any effort into the process, or if they simply pulled the numbers out of...you know where! It's also a great learning experience for newer members who get to see how more experienced members work through the process.
Oftentimes, we'll get answers like, "I chose the 5-yr high and low P/Es because I'm not comfortable choosing my own yet." That answer is perfectly reasonable, and it tells us where the member is in relation to their experience, as well as where we need to focus our education.
What I have found to be most successful at our meetings is to go around the room, on every discussion, and give members a chance to share their opinions before every vote. When they know it's coming, so they tend to be prepared.
Thanks for all the great posts! You've added plenty of great content to this board in the last few months. Always nice to see your thoughts! See you in Minneapolis.
Lynn Ostrem
Crow River Investment Club

Thanks Lynn,

I think you have valid points and I think we are trying to address the same issue which is getting everyone to participate. 

Going around the room and asking for everyones input is a good methodology.   I just find that sometimes people are not quite as open when having to speak in person, especially if they disagree with something someone else is saying.    The peer pressure factor seems to come into play a little bit more.   It depends on your group.    I can see it being very effective in some groups and maybe not as good in others.  It’s a good thing to think about.

I’m interested in hearing others thoughts on getting everyone in your club to participate.  I imagine there are a variety of techniques people use and I bet we all might be open to some new ideas to try.

Laurie

Just a quick note on this important aspect of Investment Club process.
 
Our club has a standing Investment Committee (IC) which meets the week before the monthly meeting, chaired by the club's VP, with the Treasurer and two or three other members. The good news is that the IC does the heavy lifting in reviewing the portfolio and making buy/sell recommendations for the club to discuss and then vote at the regular meeting. The bad news is that the IC does the heavy lifting, and it can preclude/disarm/discourge any other substantive work and input from the members! The actual vote is a "secret" paper ballot, which is all too often without any/many "no" votes.
 
In years past, the discussion and the vote have been more lively and interactive, which is vital. We are working on ways to encourage member input and participation.
 
I had hoped to have each member of the club adopt one or more of our stocks and be a focal point for future input and recommendations re buy/hold./sell, but that idea has not gained much acceptance.
 
I am also encouraging webinar participation, to include ManifestInvesting, but that has gained little acceptance, as well.
 
Finally, I do not think that our members are using the Club Cafe, which I find most informative.
 
I will stay with the Club Cafe and the Webinars and see what we can improve in this vital area of member participation and discussion.
 
Best Regards,
 
Leo


From: club_cafe@bivio.com [mailto:club_cafe@bivio.com] On Behalf Of Laurie Frederiksen
Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 2010 9:43 AM
To: 'The Club Cafe'
Subject: club_cafe: Having a Discussion

One of the most powerful yet difficult aspects of picking stocks as a group is being able to have a discussion and then make a decision when people may disagree.    If handled the right way,  this dissension can actually lead to better decision making because it encourages people to think about and address many different aspects of a topic.   If not handled well,  people tend to give up trying to participate.

It is important to encourage a variety of input by the members of your group and nurture an environment where different ideas are embraced and people feel comfortable speaking up and participating.   In a learning environment like a club,  it is also important to try and create an environment where everyone makes an attempt at participating.  As we all know,  you don’t really learn anything until you do the homework and try applying the knowledge yourself.

One technique I’ve been experimenting with is to offer the ability for anonymous input.  I find more people participate when they are offered this option and it brings out more variety of ideas to think about to use to make a final decision.  The discussion of the data received  focuses a little bit better on the variation in the judgments rather than the personalities or strengths and weaknesses of the group members. 

I also find I learn a lot by comparing my thoughts to others.  Since I submit them without knowing what others are going to say,   I find I put in a little more effort to try and really think through making my own decisions.

The ManifestInvesting Challenge Club is having an online “between meetings” discussion about whether or not to invest in Abbott Labs.    As part of our decision making process,  we’re asking for input on the three judgments that are made when determining a PAR or Projected Annual Return for a company.  They are, (a) its projected sales growth rate over the next 5 years, (b) it’s projected margins and (c)the projected Average P/E.  

Abbott Labs appears to be an interesting company to look at right now.  If you’d like to join in the discussion,  we’d love to have your input on the three judgment items.    You can find a place to enter your thoughts here:

Abbott Labs Group Think

Of course,  if you’d like to hear the results or join in the discussion,  make sure you let us know to add you to the Challenge Club email list or make plans to attend the May online meeting.  You can register by going to www.bivio.com/club_cafe

   Laurie Frederiksen

   www.bivio.com

 

This is an interesting thing to think about. 

I think it is the case in a lot of clubs that a few people do the majority of the “work”.  Is this bad?  Obviously there is something positive going on in your club that  has kept it together for 50 years.    

A sociologist named Brooke Harrington did a study of investment clubs that she reports on in an interesting book called Pop Finance.  Her study showed that a club’s investing success was not necessarily a primary contributor to a club’s longevity.  She discusses other benefits that people derive from the time they spend participating in the club.   For example,  for many people it is a way for them to get/stay connected with the world of finance and business.   Clubs certainly have a social benefit for many of us.    It is fun to share a hobby you have an interest in with others that have the same interest.  I think things like this add value to your life and are certainly part of the overall rewards you earn by spending time participating in a club.

Having said that,  I do think it is fun to talk about how well you are doing and to have a common goal to work toward.  Many times it is the identification of a specific goal that is what is needed to focus the efforts.

In my experience,  I think we sometimes almost avoid talking about “How well our investments are doing” because we’re afraid  it may be more difficult than we think to achieve success.  I think this is the case in my own club.   We’re good friends, we have a great time at our club meetings every month and we all feel like we’re learning about investing.   We actually have learned a lot,  I’ve been looking a lot at our relative returns lately and the results are encouraging.   Reporting on this hasn’t been a regular part of our club meetings in the past but I’m going to start  doing a little more on tracking and reporting on our relative return each month.   I’m thinking it will be interesting  just to increase awareness of it and thinking about it as we are making investment decisions.  It certainly doesn’t hurt to introduce a new idea in a non threatening manner.   One reason I really enjoy the people in my club is that they are as interested in learning new things as I am.

         Laurie Frederiksen