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Looking for Ideas I'm wondering if "sustainable", "renewable" energy companies might be an area where growth may be found. I've found some reasonably decent companies but they seem pretty expensive (high P/Es, and/or high in the HOLD range). Any thoughts from the cafe'? Hello. Idea for my club -- did a quick study of hydrogen fueled vehicles. Putting it out there for comments. We elected not to take any action on them as a club. Norm C SCS Investment Club of Bartholomew County Indiana -----Original Message----- From: club_cafe@bivio.com <club_cafe@bivio.com> On Behalf Of Stuart Lange via bivio.com Sent: Sunday, February 21, 2021 7:42 AM To: club_cafe@bivio.com Subject: [club_cafe] Looking for Ideas I'm wondering if "sustainable", "renewable" energy companies might be an area where growth may be found. I've found some reasonably decent companies but they seem pretty expensive (high P/Es, and/or high in the HOLD range). Any thoughts from the cafe'? Hi Norman... Hydrogen fueled vehicles, if they were viable, are at least a decade, if not more, from being deployed for general use. There is so much that needs to be overcome for hydrogen to be widely implemented. One problem will be creating an infrastructure for hydrogen fuel production and distribution. Hydrogen has to be manufactured from other materials such as water or natural gas and the production is inefficient. Electrolysis, if that is the technology used, will require more energy to strip the hydrogen from water than will be recovered in its re-oxidation to water when the energy is recovered. Stripping the hydrogen from natural gas is also energy intensive and requires natural gas and a means to deal with the carbon waste. Another issue will be its distribution and transport. Hydrogen gas lines and infrastructure and distribution terminals and retail stations would need to be built. Finally, at the retail end, the vehicles need to be built and sold. And the economics are uncertain. Hydrogen, if produced from petroleum derived energy, would only worsen our carbon gas emissions. In the energy cycle for modeling a hydrogen fuel economy, hydrogen should be looked at as a storage medium, and not as an energy source. Hydrogen also has a number of other issues that will have to be overcome: its relatively low energy density compared to liquid fuels, it's more explosive, public perception, automotive safety issues (for example, hardening the vehicle to prevent hydrogen being released in an accident). The technical, social, economic and environmental challenges to scale up and mass market will be difficult. As an investor, I want to see a return on investment in my lifetime. I'm currently about to retire.... I don't see an investment payoff with hydrogen in my lifetime. Further, even if hydrogen were to become viable for society as a transportation fuel, it's too early to knowingly pick the winners. Any bets placed would be a crapshoot at this point in time. And that's not investing... it's betting against the odds. John Munn
Mr Munn, thank you for your detailed reply. I concur with it. Also the reason my club passed on the investment. Full disclosure, I am a retired diesel fuel systems engineer from Cummins (CMI) and have seen their stock increase substantially because of their investments in electric and fuel cell technologies. I agree that long term the technology may not bear fruit but with states like CA and others mandating end to IC engines by 2035 (and some already mandating zero emissions) the transportation and energy industries are (will be) investing heavily in non ICE (internal combustion) engine technologies. Biden administration will likely subsidize this heavily as part of green new deal. Hybrid (electric + ICE) vehicle technologies are maturing and the next step may be non hydrocarbon powered vehicles. There will need to be investment in either electric production and grid infrastructure and/or hydrogen or other alternative sources of energy. Just my thoughts as folks were looking for forward looking ideas. I recall in my 20's that I bet that PCs would supplant minicomputers and mainframes and invested in Microsoft (a winner) well before the first IBM DOS PC. Unfortunately, I passed on Apple. Best regards Norm C From: club_cafe@bivio.com <club_cafe@bivio.com> On Behalf Of John Munn via bivio.com Hi Norman... Hydrogen fueled vehicles, if they were viable, are at least a decade, if not more, from being deployed for general use. There is so much that needs to be overcome for hydrogen to be widely implemented. One problem will be creating an infrastructure for hydrogen fuel production and distribution. Hydrogen has to be manufactured from other materials such as water or natural gas and the production is inefficient. Electrolysis, if that is the technology used, will require more energy to strip the hydrogen from water than will be recovered in its re-oxidation to water when the energy is recovered. Stripping the hydrogen from natural gas is also energy intensive and requires natural gas and a means to deal with the carbon waste. Another issue will be its distribution and transport. Hydrogen gas lines and infrastructure and distribution terminals and retail stations would need to be built. Finally, at the retail end, the vehicles need to be built and sold. And the economics are uncertain. Hydrogen, if produced from petroleum derived energy, would only worsen our carbon gas emissions. In the energy cycle for modeling a hydrogen fuel economy, hydrogen should be looked at as a storage medium, and not as an energy source. Hydrogen also has a number of other issues that will have to be overcome: its relatively low energy density compared to liquid fuels, it's more explosive, public perception, automotive safety issues (for example, hardening the vehicle to prevent hydrogen being released in an accident). The technical, social, economic and environmental challenges to scale up and mass market will be difficult. As an investor, I want to see a return on investment in my lifetime. I'm currently about to retire.... I don't see an investment payoff with hydrogen in my lifetime. Further, even if hydrogen were to become viable for society as a transportation fuel, it's too early to knowingly pick the winners. Any bets placed would be a crapshoot at this point in time. And that's not investing... it's betting against the odds. John Munn On Sun, Feb 21, 2021 at 7:48 AM Norman C. Blizard via bivio.com <user*36041900001@bivio.com> wrote:
Norm... I looked over the presentation and what I see are dreams without acknowledgement of the challenges. The Siemens offshore wind turbine, for example, is great in concept. But the challenges of desalinating water offshore with the issue of biofouling (barnacles and seaweed growth in the pipes) of desalination system is one hurdle. The collection, pressurization and transport of hydrogen to shore is another. Siemens has wind turbines to sell and part of that is the conceptual dream to create sales. Hydrogen fuel cells have their own problems. Plug Power has been unable to develop the transportation market for their fuel cells. They sell their fuel cells for forklifts because they solve the logistical challenges of battery powered forklifts with respect to charging batteries and managing lead acid batteries. Automotive use is a whole nother challenge. Fuel cells create water as the waste product from hydrogen reacting with oxygen. This water presents real problem in cold climates where the water has to be prevented from freezing. They may work in southern California, but not in the north east where I live. Plug did market their cells as an electrical power backup for cell towers, but that's a limited market. Government is quick to mandate regulations to solve problems that don't have solutions. I see this with recycling regulations where we have to recycle plastics or glass in an absence of markets and recycling technologies. Government has done the same to promote non-combustion vehicles. The result is a lopsided market where Tesla makes its money, not by selling cars, but by selling emissions offset credits to the other vehicle manufacturers. And where I live, out in the boonies where I experience lots of snow and mountains, an electric car that meets my needs for clearance, all wheel drive and range is just not available. I don't see internal combustion engines going away for a long time, despite the politicians. Albany to Buffalo, a round trip I have done in a day for work and non-work driving, is a 600 mile round trip. Syracuse to Albany is about 150 miles. An electric vehicle doesn't have the range yet for that winter drive. So we'll just have to see what develops. But the pragmatist in me says the regulations will be relaxed. Another photo in the presentation appears to be a promotional photo from Ballard that shows a European train that's going to be run off Ballard fuel cells. I ask "why"? The trains are already electrified and that traction infrastructure is already installed. It just seems to me that hydrogen and green are the current buzzwords and folks are ignoring the man behind the curtain. John On Sun, Feb 21, 2021 at 10:09 AM Norman C. Blizard via bivio.com <user*36041900001@bivio.com> wrote:
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