Another trade to talk about. Well, I'd like to
talk about it with someone. (hint, hint)
I wanted to open a position in Titan Industries, Inc. They sell
manufacturing and farm equipment. Good numbers, fair to good
expectations - ever meet a farmer who was completely sure of the
future?
This order was slightly OTM and I fully expected to get the stock
put to me as I want to start a position. I just like the price to
be 22.50-1.45=21.05 (cnc - commissions not considered) which is
close to a recent low price in the stock after a down turn due to
a disappointing 2Q earnings and potential disappointing 3Q report.
The stock was recommended back at 25 and is still a "buy up to"
24.70 or so. So I thought I was real lucky to get in at 21.05.
Why does every newsletter, ever seminar, ever webcast tell you "do
your own due diligence"... because, its your money, not theirs...
do the math.
I caught an article posted hours after my trade that basically
pointed out that TITN has a 29.50% Short Interest! Hell of a lot
of shares are betting against this stock! Hell of a lot... like
5,000,000 a lot. Ufh Duh... that's a lot even for West Fargo
(TITN headquarters).
So, in spite of there being strong articles on BOTH sides of this
stock, and a continued buy recommendation from my source, the fact
that there are so many bets against the stock means what for me?
It means I'll never see my shares put to me with this trade as
there is a Short Squeeze on - price is climbing and short sellers
take their losses by buying back their shares, more buyers than
sellers, price goes up, short sellers take their losses by buying
back their shares, etc.
BUT... TITN is due to announce 3Q tomorrow (broke a COOL Club
RULE... dooh!). Titan cautioned downward in their 2Q announcement
and Mr. Market may have already priced it into the equation... but
5,000,000 shares say that the news isn't priced into the market
and there may be a real fiscal cliff tomorrow. So, it is a bit of
a crap shoot - looks like another trip back to the green felt for
me!
Conclusion... newsletters are great places to find PROSPECTS not
INVESTMENTS. Investments are found by taking the time to look
into the company yourself before pressing your money into the
Markets willing hands.
I'm going to ride this one out because I believe that Quarters are
what people use for laundry machines. Too much emphasis is placed
on the skills of the accounting department every three months
rather than on the business. I like the prospects of this
company. I am not fully educated about the conditions that may or
may not affect the business - weather, farmers, politics - but I
have time to learn.
If I get put, I'll write CC on the stock and watch the trends. I
may even put on more shares because long term prospects are good.
If the stock surprises and the short squeeze goes viral, I'll wave
buy-buy and look for another opportunity to get into the stock at
my price. If it goes Fargo on me and stays flat... I go shopping
with the premium.
Cheers,
Malcolm
Paul Madison on
Great job of recapping your trade.
One thing I would point out to you is how the CSP premium can also tell you there is heavy downside sentiment/concern. Lots of buyers of CSPs who will stand to gain if the price goes down are bidding up the price of CSPs.
A rough rule of thumb for a "normal" premium is to look for about .5% of the underlying per week. For TITN $22.50 PUT premiums with 2 1/2 weeks left that would be in the $.30 range. Instead you got almost four to five times that amount. Rich CSP premiums ahead of earnings just reinforces that the golden rule should be observed. Unfortunately the rich premiums is like a siren of greek mythology, drawing us sellers in.
Insurance companies could sell REALLY high insurance premiums 1 or 2 days ahead of a hurricane but they realize that is not a very prudent play. High premiums which gives us high APRs ahead of earnings should sound just like a storm warning and we should batten down our Seller desks.
Does not mean it will not work out, but I would have to say almost every time I have broken the golden rule (yes I have done it also) especially on the PUT-side, I have regretted it.
What seems to work much better is to sell PUTs on the aftermath of a bad earnings report.
Thanks for sharing,
Paul
On Dec 5, 2012, at 4:02 PM, Malcolm Myles wrote:
Another trade to talk about. Well, I'd like to
talk about it with someone. (hint, hint)
I wanted to open a position in Titan Industries, Inc. They sell
manufacturing and farm equipment. Good numbers, fair to good
expectations - ever meet a farmer who was completely sure of the
future?
This order was slightly OTM and I fully expected to get the stock
put to me as I want to start a position. I just like the price to
be 22.50-1.45=21.05 (cnc - commissions not considered) which is
close to a recent low price in the stock after a down turn due to
a disappointing 2Q earnings and potential disappointing 3Q report.
The stock was recommended back at 25 and is still a "buy up to"
24.70 or so. So I thought I was real lucky to get in at 21.05.
Why does every newsletter, ever seminar, ever webcast tell you "do
your own due diligence"... because, its your money, not theirs...
do the math.
I caught an article posted hours after my trade that basically
pointed out that TITN has a 29.50% Short Interest! Hell of a lot
of shares are betting against this stock! Hell of a lot... like
5,000,000 a lot. Ufh Duh... that's a lot even for West Fargo
(TITN headquarters).
So, in spite of there being strong articles on BOTH sides of this
stock, and a continued buy recommendation from my source, the fact
that there are so many bets against the stock means what for me?
It means I'll never see my shares put to me with this trade as
there is a Short Squeeze on - price is climbing and short sellers
take their losses by buying back their shares, more buyers than
sellers, price goes up, short sellers take their losses by buying
back their shares, etc.
BUT... TITN is due to announce 3Q tomorrow (broke a COOL Club
RULE... dooh!). Titan cautioned downward in their 2Q announcement
and Mr. Market may have already priced it into the equation... but
5,000,000 shares say that the news isn't priced into the market
and there may be a real fiscal cliff tomorrow. So, it is a bit of
a crap shoot - looks like another trip back to the green felt for
me!
Conclusion... newsletters are great places to find PROSPECTS not
INVESTMENTS. Investments are found by taking the time to look
into the company yourself before pressing your money into the
Markets willing hands.
I'm going to ride this one out because I believe that Quarters are
what people use for laundry machines. Too much emphasis is placed
on the skills of the accounting department every three months
rather than on the business. I like the prospects of this
company. I am not fully educated about the conditions that may or
may not affect the business - weather, farmers, politics - but I
have time to learn.
If I get put, I'll write CC on the stock and watch the trends. I
may even put on more shares because long term prospects are good.
If the stock surprises and the short squeeze goes viral, I'll wave
buy-buy and look for another opportunity to get into the stock at
my price. If it goes Fargo on me and stays flat... I go shopping
with the premium.
Cheers,
Malcolm
Sharon McAllister on
Hi Malcolm,
It's true confession time. I looked at this particular stock myself earlier this week based on a friend's mention of the company. I love to entertain friend's ideas. Friends certainly enhance my universe of candidates by sharing their thoughts, and I greatly appreciate their ideas. So, after looking, I was interested and made Greedy Gal attempts to sell Dec. 20Ps at 65 cents on Monday and Tuesday this week. So, in spite of making an attempt to sell puts ahead of earnings, I failed. C'est la vie.
I wish you good and happy ending.... earnings will be out prior to the market open: you will know your fate soon enough.
Did you see this article while doing your research? It was the one that tipped me over the edge and drove my own madness to attempt to sell puts ahead of earnings. I chose the $20 strike because the stock's price has some recent technical support at that level.
Sharon
On Wed, Dec 5, 2012 at 3:32 PM, Paul Madison <madispa@gmail.com> wrote:
Great job of recapping your trade.
One thing I would point out to you is how the CSP premium can also tell you there is heavy downside sentiment/concern. Lots of buyers of CSPs who will stand to gain if the price goes down are bidding up the price of CSPs.
A rough rule of thumb for a "normal" premium is to look for about .5% of the underlying per week. For TITN $22.50 PUT premiums with 2 1/2 weeks left that would be in the $.30 range. Instead you got almost four to five times that amount. Rich CSP premiums ahead of earnings just reinforces that the golden rule should be observed. Unfortunately the rich premiums is like a siren of greek mythology, drawing us sellers in.
Insurance companies could sell REALLY high insurance premiums 1 or 2 days ahead of a hurricane but they realize that is not a very prudent play. High premiums which gives us high APRs ahead of earnings should sound just like a storm warning and we should batten down our Seller desks.
Does not mean it will not work out, but I would have to say almost every time I have broken the golden rule (yes I have done it also) especially on the PUT-side, I have regretted it.
What seems to work much better is to sell PUTs on the aftermath of a bad earnings report.
Thanks for sharing,
Paul
On Dec 5, 2012, at 4:02 PM, Malcolm Myles wrote:
Another trade to talk about. Well, I'd like to
talk about it with someone. (hint, hint)
I wanted to open a position in Titan Industries, Inc. They sell
manufacturing and farm equipment. Good numbers, fair to good
expectations - ever meet a farmer who was completely sure of the
future?
This order was slightly OTM and I fully expected to get the stock
put to me as I want to start a position. I just like the price to
be 22.50-1.45=21.05 (cnc - commissions not considered) which is
close to a recent low price in the stock after a down turn due to
a disappointing 2Q earnings and potential disappointing 3Q report.
The stock was recommended back at 25 and is still a "buy up to"
24.70 or so. So I thought I was real lucky to get in at 21.05.
Why does every newsletter, ever seminar, ever webcast tell you "do
your own due diligence"... because, its your money, not theirs...
do the math.
I caught an article posted hours after my trade that basically
pointed out that TITN has a 29.50% Short Interest! Hell of a lot
of shares are betting against this stock! Hell of a lot... like
5,000,000 a lot. Ufh Duh... that's a lot even for West Fargo
(TITN headquarters).
So, in spite of there being strong articles on BOTH sides of this
stock, and a continued buy recommendation from my source, the fact
that there are so many bets against the stock means what for me?
It means I'll never see my shares put to me with this trade as
there is a Short Squeeze on - price is climbing and short sellers
take their losses by buying back their shares, more buyers than
sellers, price goes up, short sellers take their losses by buying
back their shares, etc.
BUT... TITN is due to announce 3Q tomorrow (broke a COOL Club
RULE... dooh!). Titan cautioned downward in their 2Q announcement
and Mr. Market may have already priced it into the equation... but
5,000,000 shares say that the news isn't priced into the market
and there may be a real fiscal cliff tomorrow. So, it is a bit of
a crap shoot - looks like another trip back to the green felt for
me!
Conclusion... newsletters are great places to find PROSPECTS not
INVESTMENTS. Investments are found by taking the time to look
into the company yourself before pressing your money into the
Markets willing hands.
I'm going to ride this one out because I believe that Quarters are
what people use for laundry machines. Too much emphasis is placed
on the skills of the accounting department every three months
rather than on the business. I like the prospects of this
company. I am not fully educated about the conditions that may or
may not affect the business - weather, farmers, politics - but I
have time to learn.
If I get put, I'll write CC on the stock and watch the trends. I
may even put on more shares because long term prospects are good.
If the stock surprises and the short squeeze goes viral, I'll wave
buy-buy and look for another opportunity to get into the stock at
my price. If it goes Fargo on me and stays flat... I go shopping
with the premium.
Cheers,
Malcolm
Malcolm Myles on
Its all good Sharon & thanks Paul,
One of the reasons I've taken to Covered Options is that you are
either in cash, which I like... a lot, or you are in a stock which
you believe has a future of returning you money and some growth or
value to you over time (invested)... which I also like... a lot.
It is great to be able to share my trades and get some feed back.
I makes me better at what I hope to be very good at some day.
I have a different measuring stick for greed...
image link goes
to PolitiFact.com article
So when you want to pull a few pennies out of the market, grab
hold with both hands and yank as hard and as fast as you can!
Malcolm
On 12/5/2012 6:25 PM, Sharon McAllister
wrote:
Hi Malcolm,
It's true confession time. I looked at this particular stock
myself earlier this week based on a friend's mention of the
company. I love to entertain friend's ideas. Friends certainly
enhance my universe of candidates by sharing their thoughts, and
I greatly appreciate their ideas. So, after looking, I was
interested and made Greedy Gal attempts to sell Dec. 20Ps at 65
cents on Monday and Tuesday this week. So, in spite of making an
attempt to sell puts ahead of earnings, I failed. C'est la vie.
I wish you good and happy ending.... earnings will be out
prior to the market open: you will know your fate soon
enough.
Did you see this article while doing your research?
It was the one that tipped me over the edge and drove my own
madness to attempt to sell puts ahead of earnings. I chose the
$20 strike because the stock's price has some recent technical
support at that level.
Sharon
On Wed, Dec 5, 2012 at 3:32 PM, Paul
Madison <madispa@gmail.com>
wrote:
Great job of recapping
your trade.
One thing I would point out to you is how the CSP
premium can also tell you there is heavy downside
sentiment/concern. Lots of buyers of CSPs who will
stand to gain if the price goes down are bidding up
the price of CSPs.
A rough rule of thumb for a "normal" premium is to
look for about .5% of the underlying per week. For
TITN $22.50 PUT premiums with 2 1/2 weeks left that
would be in the $.30 range. Instead you got almost
four to five times that amount. Rich CSP premiums
ahead of earnings just reinforces that the golden rule
should be observed. Unfortunately the rich premiums
is like a siren of greek mythology, drawing us sellers
in.
Insurance companies could sell REALLY high
insurance premiums 1 or 2 days ahead of a hurricane
but they realize that is not a very prudent play.
High premiums which gives us high APRs ahead of
earnings should sound just like a storm warning and we
should batten down our Seller desks.
Does not mean it will not work out, but I would
have to say almost every time I have broken the golden
rule (yes I have done it also) especially on the
PUT-side, I have regretted it.
What seems to work much better is to sell PUTs on
the aftermath of a bad earnings report.
Thanks for sharing,
Paul
On Dec 5, 2012, at 4:02 PM, Malcolm Myles
wrote:
Another trade to talk
about. Well, I'd like to talk about it
with someone. (hint, hint)
I wanted to open a position in Titan
Industries, Inc. They sell manufacturing
and farm equipment. Good numbers, fair to
good expectations - ever meet a farmer who
was completely sure of the future?
This order was slightly OTM and I fully
expected to get the stock put to me as I
want to start a position. I just like the
price to be 22.50-1.45=21.05 (cnc -
commissions not considered) which is close
to a recent low price in the stock after a
down turn due to a disappointing 2Q
earnings and potential disappointing 3Q
report. The stock was recommended back at
25 and is still a "buy up to" 24.70 or
so. So I thought I was real lucky to get
in at 21.05.
Why does every newsletter, ever seminar,
ever webcast tell you "do your own due
diligence"... because, its your money, not
theirs... do the math.
I caught an article posted hours after my
trade that basically pointed out that TITN
has a 29.50% Short Interest! Hell of a
lot of shares are betting against this
stock! Hell of a lot... like 5,000,000 a
lot. Ufh Duh... that's a lot even for
West Fargo (TITN headquarters).
So, in spite of there being strong
articles on BOTH sides of this stock, and
a continued buy recommendation from my
source, the fact that there are so many
bets against the stock means what for me?
It means I'll never see my shares put to
me with this trade as there is a Short
Squeeze on - price is climbing and short
sellers take their losses by buying back
their shares, more buyers than sellers,
price goes up, short sellers take their
losses by buying back their shares, etc.
BUT... TITN is due to announce 3Q tomorrow
(broke a COOL Club RULE... dooh!). Titan
cautioned downward in their 2Q
announcement and Mr. Market may have
already priced it into the equation... but
5,000,000 shares say that the news isn't
priced into the market and there may be a
real fiscal cliff tomorrow. So, it is a
bit of a crap shoot - looks like another
trip back to the green felt for me!
Conclusion... newsletters are great places
to find PROSPECTS not INVESTMENTS.
Investments are found by taking the time
to look into the company yourself before
pressing your money into the Markets
willing hands.
I'm going to ride this one out because I
believe that Quarters are what people use
for laundry machines. Too much emphasis
is placed on the skills of the accounting
department every three months rather than
on the business. I like the prospects of
this company. I am not fully educated
about the conditions that may or may not
affect the business - weather, farmers,
politics - but I have time to learn.
If I get put, I'll write CC on the stock
and watch the trends. I may even put on
more shares because long term prospects
are good. If the stock surprises and the
short squeeze goes viral, I'll wave
buy-buy and look for another opportunity
to get into the stock at my price. If it
goes Fargo on me and stays flat... I go
shopping with the premium.
Cheers,
Malcolm
Sharon McAllister on
Good morning Malcolm. I'm sure you noticed TITN's price action. Did you decide to close your trade, take the money and run while you enjoy the jingle-jingle sound in your pocket?
Enjoy!
Sharon
Malcolm Myles on
Well, there is a high pressure dome over the
Great Basin and with all the water we've had the last week, there
is an incredible fog bank that I've been watching. It is over
500' thick and below my house. Only happens a few times a decade.
Pretty dang cool sunrise (PST here) twice!
Market opened up with TITN jumping 6% on 3Q news, the short
squeeze is on! The accountants did their job and beat by $0.01
(because any more would be a waste), reaffirmed FY13 EPS guidance
and raised FY13 revenue. Revs rose 37.6% y/y.
Choices, choices... I've got a bird in my hand, I have a flock of
birds out there, some in bushes, some in the feeder, some trained
to my hand (sorry, a bush full of house wrens outside my window, I
call it wren tv).
I could ride this out for 16 more days and let it expire worthless
or I can buy it back for $90 and look for more opportunities.
But... COOL Club Rule #2 - you write calls on stocks you want to
sell; you write put options on stocks you want to own! I want to
own this company and I want to own it near $21/sh.
Bummer... but, the numbers are not to be abuse or mistrusted.
I'll put in my order to close out the position at .15 (ask price
dropped to .35 while I am composing... the a flock of quail came
into view). Which if it hits, will make the bird in my hand that
much fatter. Then monitor TITN for a pull back on volatility and
try again.
Another seeing eye single. (50 days to Spring Training)
Malcolm
On 12/6/2012 7:14 AM, Sharon McAllister
wrote:
Good morning Malcolm. I'm sure you noticed TITN's
price action. Did you decide to close your trade, take the money
and run while you enjoy the jingle-jingle sound in your pocket?
Enjoy!
Sharon
Malcolm Myles on
Wasn't filled. My position is still open and
I'm getting comfortable with that. I ride this one out.
I am researching the company more and there are some compelling
numbers to consider as well as some significant unknown barriers -
global warming is affecting farming which affects the sales of
farming equipment. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the
temperate zones year to year. Overall trend will be warmer and
dryer which doesn't bode well for the Dust Bowl States, but
Nebraska, Dakotas and S. Canada may become the new bread basket
states, which would mean more sales. Also, the company is
expanding into expansion into Serbia, which sounds like a health
issue.
Ah, to speculate or not to speculate, what can be more human.
Malcolm
On 12/6/2012 8:09 AM, Malcolm Myles
wrote:
Well, there is a high pressure dome over the
Great Basin and with all the water we've had the last week,
there is an incredible fog bank that I've been watching. It is
over 500' thick and below my house. Only happens a few times a
decade. Pretty dang cool sunrise (PST here) twice!
Market opened up with TITN jumping 6% on 3Q news, the short
squeeze is on! The accountants did their job and beat by $0.01
(because any more would be a waste), reaffirmed FY13 EPS
guidance and raised FY13 revenue. Revs rose 37.6% y/y.
Choices, choices... I've got a bird in my hand, I have a flock
of birds out there, some in bushes, some in the feeder, some
trained to my hand (sorry, a bush full of house wrens outside my
window, I call it wren tv).
I could ride this out for 16 more days and let it expire
worthless or I can buy it back for $90 and look for more
opportunities.
But... COOL Club Rule #2 - you write calls on stocks you want to
sell; you write put options on stocks you want to own! I want
to own this company and I want to own it near $21/sh.
Bummer... but, the numbers are not to be abuse or mistrusted.
I'll put in my order to close out the position at .15 (ask price
dropped to .35 while I am composing... the a flock of quail came
into view). Which if it hits, will make the bird in my hand
that much fatter. Then monitor TITN for a pull back on
volatility and try again.
Another seeing eye single. (50 days to Spring Training)
Malcolm
On 12/6/2012 7:14 AM, Sharon
McAllister wrote:
Good morning Malcolm. I'm sure you noticed TITN's
price action. Did you decide to close your trade, take the money
and run while you enjoy the jingle-jingle sound in your pocket?
Enjoy!
Sharon
Malcolm Myles on
Hi All,
Well, It appeared that TITN was going to creep up and take a walk
away from my strike price of 22.50... So last Friday I decided to
roll that puppy over and raspberry that tummy!
Roll over...
12/4/12 STO 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 1.45, APR 126% Net $279.52
12/14/12 BTC 2x TITN 12/22/12 22.50 CSP @ 0.19, APR 173% Net $231.05
(cost me $48.47 to close)
Raspberry... Pppptttthhhhh!
I'm still amazed at is that I basically put $4,500 at "risk" of
purchasing a stock I want at my price and was paid $231 for my
"risk" in 10 days! Trade was real, was mine, was in a ROTH... was
cool.
I'll continue to watch the stock and probably just open a position
if it drops to my price again. Or maybe "risk" my $4,731
pot-o-money again!
Malcolm
On 12/6/2012 1:33 PM, Malcolm Myles
wrote:
Wasn't filled. My position is still open and
I'm getting comfortable with that. I ride this one out.
I am researching the company more and there are some compelling
numbers to consider as well as some significant unknown barriers
- global warming is affecting farming which affects the sales of
farming equipment. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the
temperate zones year to year. Overall trend will be warmer and
dryer which doesn't bode well for the Dust Bowl States, but
Nebraska, Dakotas and S. Canada may become the new bread basket
states, which would mean more sales. Also, the company is
expanding into expansion into Serbia, which sounds like a health
issue.
Ah, to speculate or not to speculate, what can be more human.