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FAST Trade Concept

Isn't the reason the option hasn't been exercised early that there is still time value left?  No matter how much the stock is above the strike price, as long as there is some time value an option holder could net more money by selling the option to someone else (getting the intrinsic value *plus* the time value) rather than exercising the option (getting only the intrinsic value).
 
-Jim Thomas
So my trade is still on and my only puzzle is why haven't I been called away early?  After all, the price is over $6 above my strike price, why hasn't someone snapped up that difference?  I looked at it on the back of a napkin and figured it this way:  If you were to exercise the options: buy at $4080, buy the stock at 39.29 for $23,574 and then sell the stock for a profit (at Friday's close) for $27,708... you would net (no commissions) $54...  Come and get me Nassim Taleb!  You billionaire radical you!
Ron & Jim,

Schwab list the option as 6.80 bid, 7.30 ask. Midpoint is 7.05 which is what they calculate values with for an intrinsic value of 7.03, time value of 0.02, Delta .9772 (which I understand means that the option has a 97% probability of being filled. Being so far ITM, the time value has dwindled to nothing already.

I think my napkin is correct. The trade to exercise the option just doesn't have any value in it - all intrinsic value. I don't know enough to know how spreads and/or multi legs would affect the options.

Final nut for me is that I keep $803 and may keep $1877 by Jan 19 which is how I worked it out ahead of the trade. The biggest risk was getting called away before the ex-dividend date but thinking about that now, I see that the money probably wasn't in that trade either as the premiums just aren't there for FAST.

November savings statement... 30 days... similar amount... $4.87! I'm a happy Cool Clubber!

Malcolm

On 12/29/2012 6:30 PM, Elliott, Ron wrote:

Malcolm:

Thanks for updating us on your in-the-money covered call trade. I'm responding to your question about why someone hasn't snapped up the difference (I've highlighted those comments in yellow below). I'm not an expert on this stuff, but fortunately there are people reading this who can correct any mis-statements I make J.

I'm quite sure that a trader would not be able to make that zero-risk $54 on a 600-share trade - that would mean that the call option has a NEGATIVE time value (i.e., selling for less than its intrinsic value). The computers that look for arbitrage opportunities in the market won't let that situation develop. Since the stock closed Friday at $46.18, the $39.29 call option would have an intrinsic value of $6.89 and could almost certainly not be bought for less than that. Looking at option tables doesn't mean a whole lot when the market is closed, but currently my broker's web page is showing bid and ask prices of $6.80 and $7.30 (a pretty wide spread). No seller is going to sell the option at $6.80 at Monday's open, unless he/she: (a) makes a mistake; (b) is sure that the stock price is simultaneously moving down by AT LEAST a dime (probably a lot more than that, since there are still almost 3 weeks till expiration); or (c) has it as part of some hedge or multi-leg spread strategy that has an element that sort of counters/offsets the sale of this call.

Right or wrong, that's my attempt at an explanation.

Happy New Year,

--Ron

From: cool_club@bivio.com [mailto:cool_club@bivio.com] On Behalf Of Malcolm Myles
Sent: Saturday, December 29, 2012 6:44 PM
To: cool_club@bivio.com
Subject: Re: [cool_club] FAST Trade Concept

Hi Again.. an update on my Fastenal position:

I had four events that I worked out that I would have to watch for with my option trade. Two of those events have passed without ill effect: I've passed through the Ex-Dividend date without being Called and I've collected the special dividend I was hunting for with this trade... $300 in the bank.

Recently, since Dec 10, the stock, inexplicably, has had a really good run up - closed Friday at $46.18 - a lot of women must have bought bags of nuts and screws for their honeys! Everyone is happy!

My option position, however, has swelled to a hefty $6.80 premium... not going to be buying that back anytime soon! In order to buy back the 6x, it would cost me $4,080... Ha! Take my 600 shares Mr. Market on or before January 19th and I'll be happy with my "cut".

My parents broker was a great guy. Toby never once failed to tell me when I bragged about a stock that he had gotten in at $1. It took some time, but I finally figured out that it isn't what the stock has done or how clever you think you are, it is what is left in your account and not the "what ifs" that matter. FAST has obviously taken off and broken key resistance lines. It may suffer with all the stocks as the market drifts down or falls down in January, but it has been a positive gainer in December and may continue up in January. I 'could have" just sat on the stock, made the dividend and rode the stock to $46... "could haves" come with very nice 20/20 rear view mirrors. I followed the first rule: Don't loose money. And I obeyed the second rule: Obey rule #1. I didn't "loose" an unexpected 12.5% gain ($3,078) in stock appreciation because I sold away that potential gain with my writing of the calls. You can't loose what you don't have.

Net profits in my account so far: $1577 premium and $300 special dividend = $1877 (what I had calculated). Risk - well, I don't think my 600 shares are going to be worth less than my strike price even if there is a significant correction in the stock from Friday's close - I get called away in 15 days at 39.29/sh (in which case, my net profit drops to $803 after selling stock at strike). Or I could get stuck with a pretty nice stock on which I can write more covered calls which isn't bad IF the price drops below my strike. Still have options.

So my trade is still on and my only puzzle is why haven't I been called away early? After all, the price is over $6 above my strike price, why hasn't someone snapped up that difference? I looked at it on the back of a napkin and figured it this way: If you were to exercise the options: buy at $4080, buy the stock at 39.29 for $23,574 and then sell the stock for a profit (at Friday's close) for $27,708... you would net (no commissions) $54... Come and get me Nassim Taleb! You billionaire radical you!

Fastenal has low premiums and trades those premiums in $0.50 strike increments. It isn't a volatile stock based on its option premiums, or isn't supposed to be, another reason to own this stock for the long haul (I have shares not optioned).

That's all that's fit to print or read on this overcast, Winter day. Hope everyone enjoys one last Long Full Moon night tonight (longest full moon of the year was last night - closest full moon opposite the Winter Solstice). We had tired jack rabbits and cold, hungry quail in the yard this morning... Werecoyotes kept everyone up with long serenades... I thought it was another Twilight movie but no vampires.

Malcolm

On 11/23/2012 5:02 PM, Malcolm Myles wrote:

Dudes & Dudettes,

Against cautionary advice... The Trade is on.

Logic: Fastenal announced a $0.50 special dividend payable Dec 21 (Dec 7 ex-dividend). In order to put the cash position of my portfolio to work and to capture the short term return, I took the following position - a Buy-Write.

B 600 FAST @ $41.05 and STO 6x FAST 01/19/13 (59 days) 39.79 CC @ $2.65
(strike price will be reduced (as well as stock) by $0.50 to 39.29 on Dec 21, used for calculations)

Here's my analysis:

  1. Option expires in January with stock just below strike price, ie worthless: (+premium+dividend+stock) I keep the premium, I collect the dividend on the 600 shares and I have 600 shares of a company I'm very happy to own (basis is still way below market due to other shares already holding). STO more CC.
  2. Option expires in January and the stock is 20-30% below the strike price: (+premium+dividend+stock) ditto, FAST is going to be awesome in five years and I have the premium and dividend. Maybe don't sell CC for a while.
  3. Option price drops to below the strike price after ex-div date: (+premium+dividend-premium+stock) I keep the premium, I collect the dividend, I BTC the option trade and write another out father for my purchase price of 41 - IF the COOL Tool shows it as profitable.
  4. Stock goes like a rocket to 55 and I'm called away on my shares: (+premium-net cost of stock) I keep the premium, I collect my strike price for stock (back into cash) and I watch my remaining shares get very pricey. Dividend may be icing or just a wish.
  5. Option get exercised before expiration because someone wants the dividend more than me: (+premium-net cost of stock) I keep the premium, the stock is called away. I've calculated that my net gain will be $503.40 (I consider this to be the worst case scenario)... no dividend for me.

Underlying: Cash... $24,638.95 (portfolio cash position)
Net premium for CC is $1,577 (out long, deeper in the money, going for the premium)
Dividend will be $300 (cherry on top)
Net cost of stock (purchase-strike price) -$1073.90 (includes commissions)

I've looked at it longer and from different angles than any trade I've ever done. I just don't see a negative risk (okay, Climate Wierding intentionally ignored.) - I either have my cash or I have my stock.

I don't believe the company will go down 20% without the rest of the market falling off the fiscal cliff and if it does, I'll have spent a good portion of my cash to get into a position not at the bottom (like I haven't done that before!). I'll use the remaining to go-a-hunting.

I don't think it will go to 55 due to a Santa Rally (Dude, if you buy your wife a sack of screws... you're nuts! But Duddettes, you buy your nut a sack of screws, you'll have started something!)

I do think I stand to make $503 at a minimum (premium-net cost of stock) with the potential of $1,877 (at an APR of 47%) in 57 more days and sleep well for 56 nights!

I know its off season, but I can't shake the feeling I just hit a stand up triple into the alley by the arches at AT&T Park!

What the heck, I did hit a triple! And it was fun as hell to see the opportunity, work through the problem with my COOL Club education and support, put it on and watch how it winds up!

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving... To the leftovers!

Malcolm

ps My most favorite literary line in a book I ready 40 years ago:

Everything in this book may be wrong. (bonus Karma points if you know the book AND author).



I see it this way.  Someone who already owns the option has two choices for getting rid of it.
 
(1) Exercise the options.  Buy 600 shares at 39.29 (strike price) and sell them at 46.18 (market price) for a profit of $4,134.
 
(2) Sell the options (6 contracts) at $7.05 for a profit of $4,230.
 
Given those two choices, why would anyone pick (1)?
 
-Jim Thomas
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, December 29, 2012 10:49 PM
Subject: Re: [cool_club] FAST Trade Concept

Ron & Jim,

Schwab list the option as 6.80 bid, 7.30 ask.  Midpoint is 7.05 which is what they calculate values with for an intrinsic value of 7.03, time value of 0.02, Delta .9772 (which I understand means that the option has a 97% probability of being filled. Being so far ITM, the time value has dwindled to nothing already.

I think my napkin is correct. The trade to exercise the option just doesn't have any value in it - all intrinsic value.  I don't know enough to know how spreads and/or multi legs would affect the options.

Final nut for me is that I keep $803 and may keep $1877 by Jan 19 which is how I worked it out ahead of the trade.  The biggest risk was getting called away before the ex-dividend date but thinking about that now, I see that the money probably wasn't in that trade either as the premiums just aren't there for FAST.

November savings statement... 30 days... similar amount... $4.87!  I'm a happy Cool Clubber!

Malcolm

On 12/29/2012 6:30 PM, Elliott, Ron wrote:

Malcolm:

Thanks for updating us on your in-the-money covered call trade.  I'm responding to your question about why someone hasn't snapped up the difference (I've highlighted those comments in yellow below).  I'm not an expert on this stuff, but fortunately there are people reading this who can correct any mis-statements I make J.

I'm quite sure that a trader would not be able to make that zero-risk $54 on a 600-share trade - that would mean that the call option has a NEGATIVE time value (i.e., selling for less than its intrinsic value).  The computers that look for arbitrage opportunities in the market won't let that situation develop.  Since the stock closed Friday at $46.18, the $39.29 call option would have an intrinsic value of $6.89 and could almost certainly not be bought for less than that.  Looking at option tables doesn't mean a whole lot when the market is closed, but currently my broker's web page is showing bid and ask prices of $6.80 and $7.30 (a pretty wide spread).  No seller is going to sell the option at $6.80 at Monday's open, unless  he/she:  (a) makes a mistake; (b) is sure that the stock price is simultaneously moving down by AT LEAST a dime (probably a lot more than that, since there are still almost 3 weeks till expiration); or (c) has it as part of some hedge or multi-leg spread strategy that has an element that sort of counters/offsets the sale of this call.

Right or wrong, that's my attempt at an explanation.

Happy New Year,

  --Ron

From: cool_club@bivio.com [mailto:cool_club@bivio.com] On Behalf Of Malcolm Myles
Sent: Saturday, December 29, 2012 6:44 PM
To: cool_club@bivio.com
Subject: Re: [cool_club] FAST Trade Concept

Hi Again.. an update on my Fastenal position:

I had four events that I worked out that I would have to watch for with my option trade.  Two of those events have passed without ill effect:  I've passed through the Ex-Dividend date without being Called and I've collected the special dividend I was hunting for with this trade... $300 in the bank.

Recently, since Dec 10, the stock, inexplicably, has had a really good run up - closed Friday at $46.18 - a lot of women must have bought bags of nuts and screws for their honeys!  Everyone is happy!

My option position, however, has swelled to a hefty $6.80 premium... not going to be buying that back anytime soon!  In order to buy back the 6x, it would cost me $4,080... Ha!  Take my 600 shares Mr. Market on or before January 19th and I'll be happy with my "cut".

My parents broker was a great guy.  Toby never once failed to tell me when I bragged about a stock that he had gotten in at $1.  It took some time, but I finally figured out that it isn't what the stock has done or how clever you think you are, it is what is left in your account and not the "what ifs" that matter.  FAST has obviously taken off and broken key resistance lines.  It may suffer with all the stocks as the market drifts down or falls down in January, but it has been a positive gainer in December and may continue up in January.  I 'could have" just sat on the stock, made the dividend and rode the stock to $46... "could haves" come with very nice 20/20 rear view mirrors.  I followed the first rule:  Don't loose money. And I obeyed the second rule: Obey rule #1.  I didn't "loose" an unexpected 12.5% gain ($3,078) in stock appreciation because I sold away that potential gain with my writing of the calls.  You can't loose what you don't have.

Net profits in my account so far:  $1577 premium and $300 special dividend = $1877 (what I had calculated).  Risk - well, I don't think my 600 shares are going to be worth less than my strike price even if there is a significant correction in the stock from Friday's close - I get called away in 15 days at 39.29/sh (in which case, my net profit drops to $803 after selling stock at strike).  Or I could get stuck with a pretty nice stock on which I can write more covered calls which isn't bad IF the price drops below my strike.  Still have options.

So my trade is still on and my only puzzle is why haven't I been called away early?  After all, the price is over $6 above my strike price, why hasn't someone snapped up that difference?  I looked at it on the back of a napkin and figured it this way:  If you were to exercise the options: buy at $4080, buy the stock at 39.29 for $23,574 and then sell the stock for a profit (at Friday's close) for $27,708... you would net (no commissions) $54...  Come and get me Nassim Taleb!  You billionaire radical you!

Fastenal has low premiums and trades those premiums in $0.50 strike increments.  It isn't a volatile stock based on its option premiums, or isn't supposed to be, another reason to own this stock for the long haul (I have shares not optioned).

That's all that's fit to print or read on this overcast, Winter day.  Hope everyone enjoys one last Long Full Moon night tonight (longest full moon of the year was last night - closest full moon opposite the Winter Solstice).  We had tired jack rabbits and cold, hungry quail in the yard this morning... Werecoyotes kept everyone up with long serenades... I thought it was another Twilight movie but no vampires.

Malcolm

On 11/23/2012 5:02 PM, Malcolm Myles wrote:

Dudes & Dudettes,

Against cautionary advice... The Trade is on.

Logic:  Fastenal announced a $0.50 special dividend payable Dec 21 (Dec 7 ex-dividend).  In order to put the cash position of my portfolio to work and to capture the short term return, I took the following position - a Buy-Write.

B 600 FAST @ $41.05 and STO 6x FAST 01/19/13 (59 days) 39.79 CC @ $2.65 
    (strike price will be reduced (as well as stock) by $0.50 to 39.29 on Dec 21, used for calculations)

Here's my analysis:

  1. Option expires in January with stock just below strike price, ie worthless:  (+premium+dividend+stock) I keep the premium, I collect the dividend on the 600 shares and I have 600 shares of a company I'm very happy to own (basis is still way below market due to other shares already holding). STO more CC.
  2. Option expires in January and the stock is 20-30% below the strike price:  (+premium+dividend+stock) ditto, FAST is going to be awesome in five years and I have the premium and dividend. Maybe don't sell CC for a while.
  3. Option price drops to below the strike price after ex-div date:  (+premium+dividend-premium+stock)  I keep the premium, I collect the dividend, I BTC the option trade and write another out father for my purchase price of 41 - IF the COOL Tool shows it as profitable.
  4. Stock goes like a rocket to 55 and I'm called away on my shares: (+premium-net cost of stock)  I keep the premium, I collect my strike price for stock (back into cash) and I watch my remaining shares get very pricey.  Dividend may be icing or just a wish.
  5. Option get exercised before expiration because someone wants the dividend more than me:  (+premium-net cost of stock) I keep the premium, the stock is called away.  I've calculated that my net gain will be $503.40 (I consider this to be the worst case scenario)... no dividend for me.

Underlying:  Cash... $24,638.95 (portfolio cash position)
Net premium for CC is $1,577 (out long, deeper in the money, going for the premium)
Dividend will be $300 (cherry on top)
Net cost of stock (purchase-strike price) -$1073.90 (includes commissions)

I've looked at it longer and from different angles than any trade I've ever done. I just don't see a negative risk (okay, Climate Wierding intentionally ignored.) - I either have my cash or I have my stock.

I don't believe the company will go down 20% without the rest of the market falling off the fiscal cliff and if it does, I'll have spent a good portion of my cash to get into a position not at the bottom (like I haven't done that before!).  I'll use the remaining to go-a-hunting.

I don't think it will go to 55 due to a Santa Rally (Dude, if you buy your wife a sack of screws... you're nuts! But Duddettes, you buy your nut a sack of screws, you'll have started something!) 

I do think I stand to make $503 at a minimum (premium-net cost of stock) with the potential of $1,877 (at an APR of 47%) in 57 more days and sleep well for 56 nights!

I know its off season, but I can't shake the feeling I just hit a stand up triple into the alley by the arches at AT&T Park! 

What the heck, I did hit a triple! And it was fun as hell to see the opportunity, work through the problem with my COOL Club education and support, put it on and watch how it winds up!

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving... To the leftovers!

Malcolm

ps My most favorite literary line in a book I ready 40 years ago:

    Everything in this book may be wrong.  (bonus Karma points if you know the book AND author).
  


Thanks Jim! I hadn't considered the "buyer" side of the option. I'm still learning and you just showed me a gap and filled it with the same comment. I've just been considering how the trade affects me and not how the buyer may consider my trades. I'll have to include this when I plan out my trades.

My guess is that the options will probably just ride out to expiration given my napkin analysis and your 1) and 2) below.

Thanks!

Malcolm

On 12/30/2012 9:43 PM, Jim Thomas wrote:
I see it this way. Someone who already owns the option has two choices for getting rid of it.
(1) Exercise the options. Buy 600 shares at 39.29 (strike price) and sell them at 46.18 (market price) for a profit of $4,134.
(2) Sell the options (6 contracts) at $7.05 for a profit of $4,230.
Given those two choices, why would anyone pick (1)?
-Jim
Message thinned...